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Nepal: trouble at the top of the world

The romance and myth of Shangri-La resonate deeply, a magic kingdom hidden in the highest mountains, a place of untold beauty, happiness and fascination, whose people are handsome, wise, and immortal.

There is without question an extraordinary beauty to Nepal, the kingdom that is said to be the real life basis for Shangri-La.   Kathmandu is a short hour and half flight from Delhi, slightly south and east as the eagle flies, but it is a different world.  For the modern traveller the first thing to note that there is no blackberry coverage, and no traffic lights on the chaotic streets of the city.  Electricity is something of a luxury, with long power outages persistent and routine, and roads are narrow, treacherous, and few.  We might picture it as a small country, but that would be untrue.  Thirty million people live here, mainly on small farms, in villages and towns hugging the southern plains of northern India, the jungles of the highlands, and the foothills of the Himalayas, the most spectacular mountain chain in the world. 

Its people speak over 50 languages and dialects, and are reasserting their individual and local identities after many years of passively accepting the rule of the "southern Brahmins".  The British colonial presence was light, with the Nepalese royal family being seen by many of its people as descendants of the gods, and insisting on national sovereignty and separateness from the Raj.  The isolation from the Empire also meant little connection to either the modernising influence of education, roads and infrastructure, or the radicalising effect of a movement for independence and social change.  Nation building was stalled in a country that was frozen in a feudal, monarchical structure whose presence is still very strong. 

Two recent events stand out in the life of the country.  The first was the outbreak of a Maoist insurgency, based in the countryside, and nurtured by a reality of exclusion, poverty and powerlessness among the people as well as a ruthless grasp of military power and political discipline by the rebels.  The Royal Nepalese Army was never able to defeat the insurgents, and widespread violence was a reality of Nepali life for well over a decade. 

The rebels were seen as criminals and terrorists by the army and the establishment (as they still are by many today), but the majority of the population did not see them this way, and Maoists won over 240 seats in the Constituent Assembly elections of 2008.

The second was the massacre of large numbers of the Royal Family, including the King, a bloodbath that left king and crown prince dead and saw a new King, Raja, take over, but the murders left the royalist forces in the country traumatised.  Conspiracy theories about what happened and who was really responsible continue to swirl around Kathmandu. The establishment of a republic was a foundation of the Maoist movement, and their argument carried the day after the ceasefire agreement was signed. 

The end of the fighting came with a commitment to write a new constitution and de-mobilise the guerillas, on condition that the army itself be democratised and allow for integration of the rebel forces.

A constituent assembly of over 600 was elected last year, and is supposed to produce a "democratic, republican, and federal" constitution by the end of May.  Concept papers on a range of subjects have been produced, with two more - on the form of the national government, and its federal structure - due to come in the next few days.  The papers are of reasonable quality, but they're not constitutional drafts, and there's an enormous amount of work still to do.  Key concessions and agreements have yet to be reached. 

The real challenge is not drafting.  It is rather that a radical insurgency reached a ceasefire with the army and the political establishment, but that the underlying differences between these forces remain.  They have been papered over, but they have not been resolved.  The issue of the army, for example, cannot be resolved until a deep peace is established.  The old Royal Nepalese Army's raison d'etre was the protection of the monarchy and the defeat of the insurgency.  Its leadership is clearly  convinced that these underlying challenges have not been fully resolved:  hence the stalemate on integrating the rebels into a new institution with a new purpose.  Similarly, the parties are far apart on such basic issues as judicial independence, the powers of a President and parliament, and the federal nature of the country.

I had the chance to attend a three day conference on the constitutional peace process in Kathmandu the week-end of January 15-17, along with a group of "constitutional warriors" from around the world.  We tried to be constructive without interfering, always a difficult balance.  The substantive thrust of advice was for the leadership of the country to focus quickly on the key issues, and not to lose the already diminishing momentum for change and reconciliation.  Our hosts were polite and engaged, but that  happened to me before, most notably in Sri Lanka between 2000 and 2004, and that country fell back to brutal fighting that only ended this year. 

There were warnings about the abuses of "Presidentialism", the importance of a respect for freedom, equality, and the rule of law, and the need to link constitutional change with real improvements in the social and economic conditions in the country.  Nepal's poverty and social hardship is all around to see and people's patience with an endless process is not unlimited.  Federalism has to be about inclusion and nation building, and not creating even more divisions.     

My own principal advice in comments to the conference was an effort to draw on some experience.  I tried not to sound too much like Polonius:

"Successful constitutional politics transcends partisanship, and looks ahead instead of attempting to redress old grievances.  It is not afraid to draw on international experience, but refuses to follow slavishly any foreign model. 

Don't operate in the name of a theory.  Make the changes that are 'sufficient unto the day' - it is a framework you are seeking, not a detailed blueprint for every detail of decision making.  Constitutional politics is about making the foundation and the framework, setting out basic principles, the underlying values as well as the essential institutions.  

By contrast, real politics and events are about buidling the walls and ceilings, the furniture and above all the spirit that makes a home.

It is not just about processes and programmes.  It is about leadership, creating the habits of trust and confidence that will make a difference, and the institutions that reinforce these habits, at both the national and the local level.  It means fighting corruption, the cancer that gnaws at trust and is the great and insidious enemy of the rule of law.

There's always an excuse to deny a problem and to delay dealing with it.  But it gets worse !!  Leadership is about having a vision of the future and how you want to achieve it.  It requires humour, a thick skin, persuasiveness, and persistence.  Great leadership is not about force, or 'getting my way'.  Mandela, Gandhi - these examples of goodness, humility and effectiveness are all around us.  Your deliberations are of great importance.  Sitting at the top of the world, with two large neighbours around you, Nepal is a country of great strategic significance.  May your ambitions be tempered by humility, your determination be guided by grace, your efforts be crowned with success and your achievements be marked by wisdom."   

Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon warned the Security Council that the political process in Nepal was at risk of breaking down.  Leaders in Nepal were taken aback by this comment, but it's clear the UN's comments were intended as a wake up call.  Peace agreements, as we saw in Sri Lanka and are seeing today in Northern Ireland, are fragile when they are really ceasefires between deeply opposed forces whose supporters will not go away, and whose views have not changed that much.  It takes extraordinary leadership and imagination to overcome the differences. 

Two superpowers, India and China, are Nepal's neighbours.  The last thing the region needs is more instability and fighting in Nepal.  But the gaps, and the risks, are great. 

Nepal is a beautiful place, but it is not Shangri-La.  The people are not immortal, and peace is by no means assured. Attention should be paid to the challenges. And we shall see who is prepared to be wise.